Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh Balance of Trade (BOT), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), dan Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) terhadap Cadangan Devisa di lima negara ASEAN, yaitu Singapura, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, dan Filipina, selama periode 2008-2023. Metode yang digunakan adalah regresi data panel dengan pendekatan Random Effect Model (REM) serta analisis tren metode kuadrat terkecil untuk proyeksi lima tahun ke depan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial, BOT dan FDI tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa di Lima Negara ASEAN periode 2008-2023, sedangkan ULN memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan. Secara simultan, ketiga variabel independen tersebut berpengaruh signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa. Proyeksi lima tahun mendatang menunjukkan tren positif BOT di Singapura, Thailand, dan Indonesia, namun defisit diperkirakan terjadi di Malaysia dan Filipina. FDI diproyeksikan meningkat di Singapura, Indonesia, Malaysia, dan Filipina. Sementara itu, Thailand menunjukkan penurunan. ULN di kelima negara diproyeksikan terus meningkat.

Kata Kunci: Balance of Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, Utang Luar Negeri, Cadangan Devisa.

This study aimed to analyze the effect of Balance of Trade (BOT), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and External Debt (ED) on Foreign Exchange Reserves in five ASEAN countries, namely Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, over the period 2008 to 2023. The methods used were panel data regression with the Random Effect Model (REM) approach and trend analysis of the least squares method for the next five years of projections. The findings reveal that, partially, BOT and FDI had no significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, whereas ED showed a positive and significant impact. However, simultaneously, the three independent variables, exerted a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves across the five ASEAN countries for the period 2008-2023. Projections for the coming five years indicate a positive trend in BOT for Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia, while Malaysia and the Philippines are expected to experience trade deficits. FDI is projected to rise in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, but decline in Thailand. External debt in all five countries is projected to continue to increase. Keywords: Balance of Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt, Foreign Exchange Reserves